***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 16.7 15.8 0.7 60.7 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 17.8 16.5 15.5 0.6 59.3 59.3 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 18.5 17.3 16.0 0.7 61.7 60.8 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 11.5 10.6 14.1 0.7 61.4 60.6 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 18.3 17.4 14.6 0.8 61.6 61.3 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 17.7 16.8 13.5 0.9 62.8 63.0 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.6 16.2 15.4 0.5 58.1 58.5 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 9.7 8.5 13.6 0.7 60.0 61.6 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 18.7 17.7 15.1 0.8 61.8 61.4 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 18.2 17.0 14.2 0.7 60.5 61.4 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 18.6 17.7 14.5 0.9 63.0 62.6 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 18.1 17.2 14.4 0.9 62.5 63.0 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.6 17.9 14.2 1.0 63.7 63.9 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 19.0 17.4 15.1 0.6 59.1 59.9 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.0 16.3 14.3 0.8 63.6 61.2 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 19.3 18.5 14.4 0.9 63.5 63.2 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.2 15.5 15.0 0.3 54.7 57.1 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 17.7 16.0 13.8 0.6 58.2 60.2 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.0 16.8 15.8 0.7 60.9 60.2 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 15.0 13.3 11.8 0.4 55.3 59.1 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 18.4 17.3 15.5 0.7 61.2 60.7 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 18.0 16.2 15.1 0.3 55.3 57.5 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 18.4 17.2 16.0 0.8 62.3 61.0 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 19.2 17.6 15.1 0.7 60.2 60.7 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 17.4 16.4 14.4 0.7 60.6 59.9 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 18.1 17.1 13.8 0.8 61.3 62.7 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 18.1 16.9 15.1 0.6 60.1 59.6 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 17.3 16.6 14.4 0.8 62.8 61.4 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 14.4 12.5 13.0 0.5 56.4 59.4 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.8 16.6 15.8 0.6 60.5 59.9 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------