***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 52.8 49.5 114.5 66.7 56.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 18.2 45.0 49.4 117.7 68.2 57.9 17.6 28.7 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 42.8 50.0 49.6 111.8 65.3 56.4 21.7 34.7 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 47.3 50.1 52.1 100.8 60.0 52.0 27.2 40.6 56.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 41.7 40.7 49.6 95.8 57.0 49.8 24.7 35.7 48.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 37.1 39.5 55.1 102.7 60.3 52.2 19.5 31.0 45.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 43.6 41.4 49.7 119.4 69.0 57.8 17.6 27.0 38.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 57.2 57.0 56.0 99.1 58.3 51.3 35.0 49.3 65.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.1 39.0 49.0 95.4 56.3 48.8 23.0 34.2 47.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 30.4 48.3 53.7 96.3 56.5 49.6 30.8 43.1 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 38.9 38.2 47.8 96.0 57.2 49.9 21.8 32.7 45.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 38.7 38.7 48.9 99.0 58.6 50.8 19.9 31.4 45.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 41.3 41.9 51.6 99.6 58.5 51.2 22.2 34.3 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.3 72.3 58.4 108.6 63.4 56.3 35.8 54.3 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 35.1 36.6 53.7 101.9 60.6 51.0 16.8 27.8 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 35.0 34.1 48.6 96.6 57.1 50.0 18.0 28.6 42.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 43.7 42.1 49.3 119.4 69.0 58.7 16.9 26.9 39.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 31.4 50.5 60.3 98.9 57.6 51.2 31.6 44.2 58.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 45.0 54.8 49.3 115.4 67.0 57.7 22.9 36.4 53.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 34.1 55.3 77.0 102.9 59.9 54.3 34.4 46.8 61.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 43.3 45.5 47.9 101.9 60.4 52.3 25.2 36.8 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 52.5 52.0 51.0 119.7 69.1 60.4 22.3 34.1 48.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 44.9 53.1 50.3 112.0 65.4 57.3 22.5 36.5 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 55.7 58.0 55.5 103.9 60.7 53.4 30.3 45.8 64.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 40.1 45.8 53.2 107.3 63.2 54.2 20.1 32.9 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 42.6 44.7 54.8 104.3 61.2 52.7 24.7 36.1 49.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 38.3 45.1 52.4 112.8 65.8 55.9 21.9 32.4 45.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 32.9 33.5 50.8 98.6 58.7 50.6 17.7 27.4 39.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 70.7 71.9 67.3 102.6 59.8 53.4 45.7 61.7 79.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 19.2 46.6 49.7 117.6 68.1 57.8 18.6 29.8 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------