***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 17.3 14.3 141.7 75.8 55.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 16.6 14.8 165.9 80.2 59.3 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.8 15.9 14.1 141.0 75.6 55.4 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.9 15.0 119.7 70.8 52.3 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.0 12.0 13.6 111.3 68.5 51.2 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.5 9.8 15.7 105.0 65.9 53.7 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 7.3 15.3 14.8 164.4 80.0 58.0 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.8 15.7 114.3 68.8 53.9 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.4 13.3 109.6 68.1 50.9 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.3 14.7 111.6 68.2 52.5 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.6 13.0 107.1 67.2 50.8 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.9 13.5 110.9 67.6 51.4 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.7 14.2 105.5 66.1 52.1 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 26.0 16.5 139.6 75.2 56.4 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.8 13.3 16.6 123.0 71.5 51.3 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.2 13.4 103.8 66.0 51.4 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.9 15.3 14.6 168.8 80.7 59.3 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.5 16.8 114.1 68.6 54.0 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.4 23.3 14.7 162.1 79.7 58.5 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 16.4 22.4 117.7 69.9 58.2 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 12.5 13.1 119.8 70.9 52.1 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 12.0 17.4 15.0 170.4 81.0 61.2 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.5 19.9 14.8 154.3 78.3 57.1 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.7 18.2 15.4 125.3 71.6 53.9 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.1 14.5 15.6 128.2 73.0 54.9 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.8 15.4 115.9 69.3 55.5 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.7 14.9 15.4 140.1 75.5 55.9 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.8 12.0 14.7 114.1 69.1 51.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 21.7 19.3 118.4 69.9 56.0 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.3 18.6 14.8 160.0 79.2 58.2 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------