***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 5.9 12.1 111.3 68.6 53.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 9.5 12.2 111.3 68.5 53.3 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.6 11.9 106.9 66.7 51.6 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.7 13.2 93.0 62.4 50.0 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.8 12.9 95.3 62.9 49.5 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.3 7.9 14.6 101.1 64.2 47.9 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.0 12.7 119.0 70.5 55.0 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 12.3 14.4 97.3 63.6 49.7 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.6 13.0 99.3 64.3 50.4 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.1 10.9 13.7 95.0 62.5 49.0 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.9 12.4 96.7 63.6 48.7 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.8 12.9 102.0 65.3 49.6 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.8 10.0 13.6 102.6 65.0 49.8 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.3 13.1 90.9 61.0 49.7 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.7 8.2 13.7 91.9 63.0 49.7 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.2 12.6 97.4 63.7 48.9 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 9.8 12.7 111.7 68.7 53.9 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.6 14.4 90.4 60.1 48.8 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 10.4 11.7 104.5 66.3 51.4 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 10.8 18.7 93.6 61.4 51.0 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.4 11.2 12.4 104.6 66.4 52.2 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.4 12.3 102.8 65.9 52.9 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.7 11.0 11.3 95.5 63.1 49.3 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.1 13.0 93.5 61.6 49.2 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.1 13.3 103.3 66.1 53.2 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 11.4 14.9 110.8 67.8 52.4 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.6 12.9 108.6 67.7 53.7 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.7 13.0 91.5 62.2 48.7 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.9 15.8 91.4 60.3 49.7 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.8 9.5 12.1 112.4 68.7 53.4 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------