***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2012.-04.11.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 10.8 12.8 142.0 75.8 57.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 10.0 11.8 125.4 71.8 54.2 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.9 12.4 13.2 138.0 74.9 57.3 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 11.5 14.9 140.0 75.5 57.5 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.7 11.4 13.6 128.4 72.9 55.5 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 7.8 14.5 132.4 73.9 58.0 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 9.5 11.5 124.9 71.7 54.1 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 14.7 15.3 135.9 74.5 57.9 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.8 13.1 122.6 71.4 54.3 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.3 14.4 127.5 72.5 55.8 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.4 9.9 13.3 133.5 74.1 56.1 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 11.9 13.5 140.5 75.6 57.8 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.5 11.2 13.9 138.7 75.2 57.9 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.2 18.5 15.7 132.5 73.6 56.7 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.9 9.3 16.1 152.8 78.0 57.3 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.1 8.8 13.6 136.8 74.9 57.4 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.4 10.9 11.0 121.0 70.6 52.7 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 13.2 16.5 129.7 72.9 55.8 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.0 12.0 12.2 126.5 72.1 54.9 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.8 14.6 21.5 134.7 74.0 58.2 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.6 12.8 129.9 73.2 55.9 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.2 11.9 11.3 116.8 69.6 53.5 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 12.6 13.1 128.8 72.8 55.9 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.1 14.7 15.1 132.9 73.7 56.2 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.6 14.1 137.4 74.8 57.2 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.9 11.2 14.6 148.1 77.1 59.5 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 11.3 13.4 137.4 74.8 57.1 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.2 14.9 142.6 76.1 57.4 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.8 19.7 18.6 132.9 73.6 56.6 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 10.8 12.3 132.4 73.5 55.7 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------