***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 10.4 11.6 11.9 2.5 86.9 84.1 6.8 8.2 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 10.0 11.0 11.4 2.3 86.3 84.0 6.8 8.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 11.8 12.6 12.0 2.4 86.5 84.1 9.0 10.1 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 6.5 6.7 7.8 1.0 68.4 67.4 4.5 5.5 6.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 9.1 9.5 9.7 1.8 79.8 78.0 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 6.9 7.1 6.0 0.4 58.0 57.2 5.7 6.6 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 9.8 10.5 11.1 2.0 82.8 80.5 7.0 8.1 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 3.7 3.9 7.1 1.2 72.2 70.4 1.7 2.7 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 9.6 10.1 9.6 1.6 78.2 75.7 7.2 8.2 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 9.2 9.5 8.0 1.4 75.5 73.4 7.0 8.0 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 8.5 8.7 8.6 1.1 70.0 68.2 6.6 7.5 8.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 7.4 7.6 7.7 1.1 69.6 67.6 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 7.3 7.2 6.9 0.2 53.0 52.5 6.1 7.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 9.7 9.9 9.2 1.4 74.9 72.9 7.5 8.5 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 8.5 8.7 8.8 0.3 57.1 56.6 7.7 8.4 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 8.7 8.9 7.4 0.4 58.2 57.3 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 9.8 10.6 10.9 2.1 84.9 82.4 7.3 8.3 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 8.1 8.4 7.4 1.3 73.1 71.0 6.1 7.0 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 9.9 10.9 11.6 2.5 87.9 85.7 7.0 8.1 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.5 4.7 6.1 1.4 72.2 70.9 2.4 3.4 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.6 10.5 1.5 77.2 74.5 6.3 7.5 8.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 9.1 9.9 11.3 2.2 86.6 84.5 6.3 7.3 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 9.4 10.4 11.7 2.5 88.3 86.3 6.7 7.7 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 8.7 9.1 9.3 1.5 76.9 74.6 6.6 7.6 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 10.3 11.4 11.4 2.5 87.2 84.8 7.0 8.2 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 7.7 7.9 6.7 0.5 58.2 57.1 6.6 7.5 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 10.4 11.2 11.2 2.1 80.9 78.5 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 6.9 7.1 7.5 0.3 55.7 55.2 5.9 6.8 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.6 6.9 1.4 73.9 72.2 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 10.3 11.4 11.9 2.5 87.6 85.3 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------