***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.7 10.7 1.7 72.9 67.0 4.8 6.0 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 7.5 7.7 10.1 1.6 72.4 66.5 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.7 10.0 10.7 1.8 75.1 69.2 7.2 8.3 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 4.7 5.0 7.7 1.5 72.8 68.2 2.4 3.5 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.9 8.3 1.4 70.2 65.3 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.0 5.8 1.1 67.0 63.4 3.3 4.7 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 7.3 7.5 10.1 1.6 71.7 66.2 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.6 6.1 1.2 68.2 64.5 -0.4 1.1 2.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 7.7 7.9 8.4 1.3 70.3 64.7 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 7.3 7.4 6.9 1.2 69.1 64.8 4.7 6.0 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.9 7.5 1.2 68.4 64.2 4.3 5.5 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.1 5.9 6.7 1.1 66.5 63.1 3.3 4.6 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.8 6.1 0.6 60.0 58.0 3.7 5.0 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.7 8.0 1.1 68.2 64.0 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.9 8.9 1.6 76.4 70.1 4.9 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.4 6.7 0.9 64.0 60.9 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.5 9.8 1.5 72.0 66.3 4.9 6.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.1 6.1 1.1 66.5 63.3 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 7.6 7.9 10.2 1.7 74.5 68.3 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.1 2.6 4.7 0.8 62.6 60.4 0.2 1.6 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.6 9.6 1.4 70.7 65.3 4.7 6.0 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 6.7 7.0 9.9 1.6 74.1 68.4 4.2 5.4 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.0 10.2 1.8 76.8 70.5 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.9 8.0 1.3 70.4 66.0 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 7.8 8.2 9.8 1.7 72.5 66.9 5.1 6.4 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.2 6.1 0.9 63.1 60.7 4.1 5.3 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 8.1 8.3 10.1 1.5 70.4 65.1 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 5.9 6.1 7.7 1.3 71.1 66.3 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.4 5.6 1.1 66.4 63.2 3.0 4.2 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.2 10.5 1.7 74.0 68.0 5.1 6.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------