***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.0 7.3 1.1 65.0 60.6 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.3 6.7 1.0 63.2 59.0 2.2 4.0 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.1 7.8 7.2 1.1 66.0 60.9 4.7 6.3 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 2.9 4.3 1.0 63.9 60.0 -0.3 1.5 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.6 4.7 0.9 62.9 59.3 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.0 3.2 1.1 65.6 61.9 0.9 2.5 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.6 5.2 6.9 1.0 63.5 59.5 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.9 1.2 3.1 1.0 63.9 60.6 -1.9 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.4 5.1 0.9 62.6 59.1 2.5 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.2 3.8 1.0 63.0 59.6 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 5.3 4.8 4.1 1.0 63.7 60.3 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.1 3.5 1.0 64.3 60.8 1.0 2.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.1 3.4 1.0 63.8 60.4 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.9 5.0 0.9 63.1 58.8 3.3 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.3 5.3 1.0 65.6 61.7 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.5 3.8 1.0 63.7 60.4 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 4.7 5.2 6.6 0.9 62.2 58.4 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.5 3.1 0.9 62.2 58.6 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.4 6.8 1.0 64.3 59.5 2.4 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 1.7 1.0 1.8 0.9 61.6 58.6 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.4 6.3 1.0 63.5 59.5 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.1 4.7 6.5 1.0 64.1 59.0 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 5.5 6.7 1.1 65.5 60.2 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 5.4 4.8 4.7 0.9 63.4 59.1 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.7 6.0 1.0 63.6 60.1 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 4.9 4.5 3.2 1.1 65.5 61.3 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.1 6.8 1.1 63.9 60.0 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 4.3 3.9 4.4 1.0 64.3 60.5 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.4 3.8 2.7 0.9 61.8 58.2 0.8 2.6 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.1 5.8 7.0 1.1 64.7 60.2 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------