***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 6.9 7.6 9.8 1.8 84.5 77.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 6.7 7.5 9.3 1.6 83.7 76.6 5.0 5.8 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 8.9 9.6 9.8 1.7 85.4 78.7 7.3 8.0 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 4.1 4.5 6.5 1.2 78.1 72.1 2.5 3.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 5.9 6.4 7.3 1.3 80.1 73.4 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.4 5.0 1.0 74.3 68.7 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.2 9.3 1.6 82.6 75.9 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 1.8 2.2 5.3 1.1 77.0 71.5 0.2 0.9 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.3 7.5 1.3 79.3 72.5 5.3 6.0 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 6.5 6.8 6.1 1.2 78.0 72.1 5.1 5.8 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 6.1 6.4 6.5 1.1 76.8 70.8 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.5 5.8 1.1 76.3 70.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.5 5.4 0.7 69.0 64.5 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.4 7.3 1.2 78.2 72.5 5.7 6.3 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.5 6.8 7.6 1.1 77.9 71.8 5.2 5.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.0 5.8 0.9 71.8 66.6 5.5 6.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.3 9.0 1.6 82.8 75.8 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 5.3 5.6 5.4 1.1 76.4 71.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 6.7 7.4 9.4 1.7 85.1 78.2 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.5 4.0 1.1 74.0 69.5 0.7 1.4 2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.9 8.7 1.3 79.7 72.8 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.6 9.1 1.6 84.6 78.1 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 6.5 7.2 9.3 1.7 86.3 79.9 5.1 5.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 6.1 6.5 7.2 1.3 79.8 73.9 4.8 5.4 5.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.7 8.8 1.7 83.6 76.7 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.0 5.3 0.9 72.7 67.5 4.6 5.2 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.8 9.2 1.6 81.4 74.9 5.3 6.1 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.2 6.5 1.0 74.3 68.7 3.8 4.4 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.3 4.9 1.1 76.3 71.2 3.3 4.1 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 7.0 7.8 9.6 1.8 85.3 78.3 5.3 6.1 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------