***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 21.9 24.2 22.0 4.1 93.5 92.3 18.1 19.4 20.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 22.0 24.7 22.5 4.4 94.7 93.8 18.2 19.6 20.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 22.1 24.4 22.4 4.2 93.4 92.1 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 14.9 15.9 17.4 2.8 84.9 83.3 11.3 12.7 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 22.0 23.4 19.6 3.2 88.1 86.5 18.4 19.8 21.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 21.2 21.9 17.3 2.6 80.8 78.8 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 21.6 24.1 22.2 4.2 94.1 93.0 17.9 19.2 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 12.2 12.9 17.9 2.9 84.1 82.8 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 21.9 23.3 20.5 3.2 88.5 86.9 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 21.5 22.4 18.9 3.0 84.6 83.2 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 22.1 23.3 20.0 3.2 86.9 85.3 18.5 19.8 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 21.6 22.7 18.9 3.2 86.8 85.3 18.1 19.4 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 22.4 23.6 20.1 3.4 88.3 86.9 18.9 20.2 21.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 22.5 24.1 21.1 3.7 89.9 88.8 18.7 20.1 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 21.2 22.4 20.0 3.1 88.1 86.5 17.9 19.1 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 22.8 23.9 19.5 3.1 87.0 85.3 19.3 20.6 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 21.4 23.9 22.0 4.3 94.4 93.4 17.7 19.0 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 20.6 21.4 18.4 3.1 84.3 83.2 17.3 18.6 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 21.8 24.5 22.6 4.4 94.7 93.7 18.1 19.5 20.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 17.9 18.3 16.5 2.7 81.0 80.1 14.6 15.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 21.9 23.4 21.4 3.4 89.5 88.0 18.3 19.7 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 22.1 24.4 22.0 4.1 93.4 92.5 18.4 19.7 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 22.1 24.6 22.7 4.6 95.1 94.0 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 22.1 23.6 20.9 3.6 89.1 87.8 18.4 19.8 21.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 21.1 22.5 20.3 3.5 90.3 88.9 18.0 19.1 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 22.0 23.5 19.0 3.8 91.0 89.9 18.9 20.0 21.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 21.7 23.6 21.3 3.9 92.6 91.4 18.2 19.5 20.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 21.5 22.3 18.3 2.7 83.4 81.8 17.9 19.3 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 17.1 17.7 17.9 3.0 83.0 82.0 13.5 14.9 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 21.6 24.2 22.5 4.4 94.7 93.6 18.0 19.3 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------