***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 19.0 20.0 20.2 2.8 81.3 76.4 15.4 16.9 18.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 18.7 19.7 20.4 3.0 82.4 77.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 19.3 20.1 20.5 2.8 79.8 74.8 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 12.4 13.0 16.6 2.2 75.7 71.0 8.8 10.4 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 19.3 19.8 18.1 2.1 74.0 69.9 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 18.8 19.0 16.4 1.7 69.8 66.2 15.3 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 18.6 19.6 20.2 2.9 82.3 77.0 15.4 16.8 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 10.5 10.8 16.7 1.9 71.4 67.3 7.0 8.6 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 19.6 20.1 18.9 2.2 74.7 70.4 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.9 19.1 17.6 2.0 71.5 67.7 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 19.4 19.9 18.4 2.1 73.2 69.0 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 19.2 19.6 17.6 2.1 73.7 69.1 15.5 17.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 19.8 20.2 18.0 2.0 73.2 69.3 16.2 17.9 19.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 19.5 19.9 19.1 2.3 73.5 69.6 16.2 17.7 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 18.2 18.9 18.4 2.6 81.5 75.4 15.0 16.3 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 20.3 20.8 18.0 2.1 74.2 69.8 16.7 18.3 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 18.2 19.1 19.9 2.8 81.2 75.9 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.4 17.3 2.0 70.6 66.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 18.7 19.7 20.5 3.0 81.9 76.5 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.1 15.3 1.8 69.3 65.7 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.8 19.6 2.3 75.4 71.1 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 18.8 19.6 19.8 2.6 79.5 74.5 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.9 19.9 20.6 3.0 81.6 76.1 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 19.5 19.9 19.1 2.3 73.6 69.4 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.0 18.5 2.4 77.2 73.0 15.4 16.7 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 19.3 20.3 17.4 2.4 78.5 73.2 15.8 17.4 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 19.3 20.1 19.5 2.6 80.0 75.3 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 18.8 19.3 17.3 2.2 76.0 71.0 15.3 16.9 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 15.1 15.1 16.6 1.9 69.2 65.8 11.5 13.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 18.7 19.7 20.5 3.0 82.5 77.2 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------