***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 18.0 18.3 17.5 2.0 73.1 67.5 13.3 15.4 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.4 17.6 2.3 74.9 68.6 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 18.5 18.9 18.0 2.2 74.0 68.3 14.0 16.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 11.9 12.0 15.0 1.9 71.7 66.7 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 18.5 18.3 15.8 1.8 69.8 65.5 14.1 16.0 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.6 17.5 14.9 1.8 68.9 65.2 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.1 17.5 2.2 74.3 68.1 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.7 9.4 14.8 1.7 68.0 64.8 5.7 7.5 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 18.8 18.7 16.5 1.9 69.9 65.7 14.3 16.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 18.2 18.0 15.6 1.8 68.9 65.1 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.6 15.9 1.8 70.0 65.9 14.3 16.2 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 18.2 18.0 15.6 1.8 69.6 65.9 13.9 15.8 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 18.6 18.4 15.3 1.7 68.0 64.6 14.4 16.3 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.8 16.7 2.0 70.2 65.8 14.3 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 17.0 17.5 15.6 2.0 74.3 68.6 13.4 15.0 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 19.4 19.3 15.8 1.9 70.2 66.0 15.0 16.9 18.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.6 17.2 2.1 73.5 67.6 13.2 15.0 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 17.5 17.2 15.6 1.9 68.6 64.8 13.1 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.6 17.9 2.3 75.2 68.9 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.3 13.1 1.5 64.9 62.5 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.4 17.0 1.8 70.3 65.7 14.1 16.0 17.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.7 18.4 17.2 2.1 73.3 67.5 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 18.3 18.8 18.1 2.4 75.0 69.0 13.7 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.9 19.0 16.8 2.1 70.8 66.2 14.4 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.6 17.5 15.6 1.7 69.5 65.0 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 18.1 18.2 15.1 1.9 71.4 67.6 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 18.1 18.3 16.8 1.9 71.6 66.4 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 17.5 17.8 15.4 2.0 73.0 67.7 13.3 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 14.1 13.8 14.7 1.7 66.7 63.6 9.8 11.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 17.8 18.4 17.7 2.3 75.1 68.9 13.4 15.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------