***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.4 15.0 1.4 65.3 60.9 12.8 14.7 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 15.9 15.6 14.9 1.3 65.2 61.0 12.5 14.1 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.7 15.3 1.4 65.0 60.7 13.0 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.6 12.5 1.3 64.9 60.5 6.6 8.7 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.2 13.3 1.1 62.3 59.0 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.3 15.8 12.2 1.1 61.1 58.5 12.6 14.6 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.3 14.8 1.2 64.6 60.6 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 5.5 8.4 12.2 0.9 59.6 57.8 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 12.8 16.5 13.9 1.1 61.7 58.6 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 12.3 16.0 13.0 1.0 60.1 57.9 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.0 16.5 13.2 1.1 61.5 58.7 13.1 15.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 12.4 16.2 12.8 1.0 60.8 58.5 12.8 14.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.8 16.4 12.5 1.0 60.0 57.9 13.2 15.2 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.6 16.5 14.1 1.1 61.2 58.7 12.9 15.1 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.2 13.1 1.4 67.3 61.9 12.2 13.7 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 13.6 17.3 13.0 1.1 61.8 58.9 13.9 15.9 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.6 14.5 1.2 63.7 60.1 11.7 13.3 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 11.4 14.9 12.8 0.9 59.1 57.4 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 16.0 15.1 1.4 65.6 61.2 12.5 14.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.0 13.1 10.6 0.7 57.3 56.5 10.3 12.3 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.3 14.5 1.2 62.6 59.1 13.0 15.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.8 15.5 14.5 1.2 63.7 60.1 12.3 14.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.2 16.1 15.4 1.4 65.4 61.0 12.6 14.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.8 16.6 14.1 1.1 61.2 58.6 13.2 15.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.7 15.3 13.3 1.2 63.5 59.7 12.2 13.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 12.8 16.3 12.4 1.2 63.2 59.8 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.3 14.3 1.3 64.3 60.3 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.8 12.8 1.4 65.3 60.7 12.5 14.2 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 12.2 12.0 0.8 57.7 56.7 9.0 11.2 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.9 15.7 15.0 1.4 65.8 61.3 12.4 14.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------