***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 18.2 19.5 18.7 2.6 89.3 84.0 15.6 16.6 17.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 17.9 19.1 18.8 2.7 90.4 85.2 15.7 16.5 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 18.5 19.8 19.0 2.6 89.3 83.8 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 11.6 12.6 15.4 2.1 84.3 78.7 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 18.3 19.3 16.7 2.1 84.1 78.4 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.4 15.2 1.8 80.0 74.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 17.7 18.9 18.7 2.6 89.6 84.6 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.2 15.4 1.9 80.9 75.1 7.6 8.5 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.5 17.4 2.1 84.2 78.4 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 18.0 18.8 16.3 2.0 81.3 75.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.5 16.9 2.1 83.5 77.7 16.1 17.2 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 18.2 19.0 16.2 2.0 83.3 77.1 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 18.8 19.6 16.5 2.0 82.7 76.6 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 18.6 19.7 17.8 2.3 84.5 79.0 16.3 17.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 17.1 18.0 16.8 2.3 87.9 82.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 19.3 20.2 16.6 2.1 83.8 77.8 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 17.3 18.4 18.4 2.6 89.2 84.2 15.1 15.9 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 17.2 18.0 16.0 2.0 80.6 75.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 18.1 19.4 19.0 2.8 90.5 85.2 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 14.8 15.4 13.9 1.7 77.2 72.0 12.7 13.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 18.3 19.3 18.1 2.2 85.1 79.5 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 13 87 100 18.1 19.2 18.4 2.5 88.4 83.4 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 18.3 19.6 19.2 2.8 90.7 85.3 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 18.6 19.7 17.7 2.3 84.4 78.7 16.2 17.3 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 17.5 18.4 16.9 2.2 85.6 80.4 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 18.4 19.5 16.0 2.3 87.5 81.1 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 18.2 19.3 18.0 2.4 88.0 82.7 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 17.5 18.4 16.0 2.0 84.3 78.3 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.7 15.3 1.8 78.6 73.3 11.7 12.8 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 17.8 19.1 18.9 2.8 90.6 85.4 15.5 16.4 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------