***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 89 11 0 100 1.1 0.6 1.4 11.8 17.2 9.8 2.4 5.8 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 1.9 1.1 1.3 12.3 16.2 10.8 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.2 10.6 14.3 9.1 3.6 7.9 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 3.2 2.0 1.7 12.4 17.3 11.5 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 1.8 1.6 1.9 14.7 19.1 11.2 3.8 7.6 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 2.6 2.0 2.0 13.4 17.1 12.8 5.0 9.7 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.3 12.0 17.5 11.3 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 5.6 6.4 5.4 33.8 28.8 23.2 7.7 13.6 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 91 9 0 100 1.7 1.1 1.8 14.3 16.8 10.4 3.6 8.0 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.4 27.5 24.4 18.8 3.9 8.4 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 1.5 1.2 2.2 15.9 18.9 11.5 3.2 6.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.8 3.7 25.6 25.2 19.1 3.0 6.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 2.3 1.8 2.2 14.1 18.8 13.6 4.4 8.9 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 2.3 2.3 3.4 23.1 23.9 16.9 4.1 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 1.4 0.9 1.2 8.5 17.1 11.2 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 1.3 0.8 1.6 11.8 16.8 11.1 2.8 6.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.7 16.6 20.4 14.1 2.1 4.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 4.3 4.6 6.8 41.1 33.4 27.8 4.6 10.0 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 86 14 0 100 1.7 0.9 1.5 13.4 17.1 11.1 3.0 7.0 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.3 8.1 10.5 60.0 44.5 38.5 5.1 9.8 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.7 1.7 14.2 18.1 10.1 4.1 8.7 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 83 17 0 100 1.7 1.4 1.8 17.7 21.4 14.4 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 1.2 1.0 1.9 16.3 19.5 12.2 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 2.3 1.7 3.1 21.7 21.2 16.3 3.8 9.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 2.1 1.7 1.6 12.3 18.5 9.9 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.6 5.4 35.4 33.4 28.0 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 1.6 1.3 1.4 11.5 18.0 9.8 3.4 7.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 1.3 0.7 1.4 10.3 15.7 10.3 2.5 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.6 8.3 8.0 48.3 37.8 32.6 6.8 13.4 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 1.4 0.6 1.1 10.1 14.7 9.3 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------