***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.9 5.8 6.4 51.9 45.4 31.0 3.4 6.8 11.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 2.0 5.5 7.2 63.8 50.3 32.7 2.5 5.3 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 2.6 6.3 7.2 59.2 48.5 33.0 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 8.8 9.5 73.9 56.7 38.8 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.0 6.8 7.6 62.7 50.8 35.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.4 8.2 70.6 53.8 39.7 2.6 5.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.8 4.8 6.7 59.8 48.4 31.1 2.4 5.0 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.0 10.5 9.3 71.0 53.9 38.9 5.3 9.3 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.5 7.5 7.3 62.8 50.6 34.0 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.4 9.6 8.6 69.3 52.9 37.5 4.8 8.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.2 7.2 8.2 65.2 49.9 36.0 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 2.7 6.4 8.2 66.8 51.4 36.0 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.7 7.3 8.5 71.9 55.1 40.4 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.0 13.3 10.3 69.2 53.0 37.5 6.5 12.0 19.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.4 7.7 10.1 76.1 58.0 37.5 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 2.9 6.9 8.1 68.9 53.1 37.7 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.9 4.9 7.5 66.0 51.5 31.9 2.1 4.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 4.1 8.9 9.5 69.7 52.5 36.1 4.4 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.1 8.4 7.6 65.5 51.4 33.8 3.8 7.9 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.4 8.7 11.2 63.5 50.1 36.0 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.5 6.0 6.8 58.0 48.7 32.0 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.3 6.4 8.6 70.9 53.9 33.9 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.3 8.5 8.2 66.6 52.3 35.2 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.5 9.3 9.2 68.6 52.1 36.1 4.1 8.5 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.9 5.9 7.1 53.9 46.8 33.0 3.3 6.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.3 6.5 8.9 70.5 52.9 36.1 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 5.0 6.3 49.0 43.7 30.8 3.2 6.3 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.8 8.2 9.1 75.5 57.5 38.7 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 6.0 12.7 10.5 69.2 52.0 36.3 6.4 11.9 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.4 6.5 7.0 60.7 49.2 32.6 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------