***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.7 9.5 13.5 104.9 66.1 48.6 2.2 5.0 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.0 13.2 107.8 67.0 50.3 2.5 5.1 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.4 13.7 104.8 66.0 48.2 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 14.2 18.6 126.7 72.3 52.3 2.6 5.8 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.4 15.3 111.7 68.0 50.7 3.7 6.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 6.7 8.3 13.9 104.0 65.6 49.7 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.2 13.1 107.4 66.7 50.8 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.5 13.4 15.4 107.2 66.4 52.1 4.0 7.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.8 14.4 102.2 65.1 48.7 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.5 14.8 100.7 64.1 49.3 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.9 9.7 13.9 106.3 66.3 50.2 3.0 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.4 13.9 108.3 67.1 51.9 2.3 5.1 9.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.9 14.5 109.7 67.6 51.5 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 14.8 15.7 99.6 64.0 47.2 4.3 9.1 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 13.1 21.0 140.4 75.5 52.7 2.2 5.0 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.7 9.6 14.3 112.3 68.2 50.7 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.8 12.7 104.0 65.5 49.5 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.2 15.1 95.4 61.9 47.7 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.9 13.6 109.5 67.5 49.5 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.0 20.4 109.2 66.4 52.1 3.3 7.1 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.9 14.0 103.8 65.5 48.4 2.9 6.0 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.4 13.6 104.8 65.7 47.9 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.9 14.2 110.0 67.4 48.0 3.1 6.8 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.5 14.5 96.1 62.6 47.0 3.2 7.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 10.0 16.0 112.7 68.3 51.2 1.6 4.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.2 11.1 15.4 108.1 67.3 50.7 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.1 14.0 105.0 66.0 49.3 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.8 10.6 17.7 127.2 72.4 50.7 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.2 16.3 99.4 63.3 49.6 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.2 13.7 109.4 67.5 50.8 2.5 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------