***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.9 12.0 90.0 61.9 46.9 2.9 5.4 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.6 6.7 9.7 85.8 60.1 46.0 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.7 8.0 12.3 93.6 63.1 47.8 2.2 4.8 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.0 8.3 14.7 98.6 64.6 48.5 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.2 13.7 95.0 63.3 48.2 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.2 5.8 13.2 97.9 64.0 50.6 2.2 3.8 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.5 6.4 9.8 86.7 60.2 45.5 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 10.3 14.9 97.2 63.6 51.0 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.8 14.0 96.0 63.3 47.9 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.3 14.8 96.7 63.3 50.0 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.0 6.7 12.9 92.1 62.2 48.6 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.8 12.9 92.7 62.3 49.6 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.5 13.2 94.4 62.9 50.6 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.7 14.0 91.6 61.3 47.9 3.4 7.6 14.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.3 15.6 105.3 67.3 48.4 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.9 12.8 94.3 63.1 49.8 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.8 7.6 9.5 88.2 60.4 46.2 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.1 15.9 101.3 64.6 51.3 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.1 10.1 85.7 59.9 46.2 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 11.2 20.0 105.4 65.9 53.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.7 13.3 95.1 63.2 47.5 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.8 85.6 59.3 45.9 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.9 10.7 84.8 59.2 46.0 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.7 14.4 98.7 64.0 49.7 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.0 13.3 91.2 62.0 46.9 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.1 14.2 97.2 64.4 51.0 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.5 7.0 12.0 87.1 60.5 45.6 2.4 4.8 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 5.2 6.4 14.3 100.7 65.6 48.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.4 15.1 16.9 103.4 65.0 52.0 5.2 9.6 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.2 10.6 87.5 60.9 46.1 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------