***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.10.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-04.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 17.5 22.4 33.3 66.4 37.1 34.6 19.8 31.9 47.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 17.2 21.3 31.4 69.2 39.1 36.8 17.6 28.7 42.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 19.7 26.2 34.4 69.3 39.3 36.0 21.7 34.7 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 25.6 37.3 44.6 78.9 46.1 40.1 27.2 40.6 56.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 23.0 30.0 38.5 72.8 41.6 37.0 24.7 35.7 48.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 18.2 23.4 37.2 70.2 39.0 36.6 19.5 31.0 45.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 16.7 20.3 30.8 68.2 38.0 36.2 17.6 27.0 38.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 33.9 42.7 45.0 76.4 42.4 40.1 35.0 49.3 65.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 19.8 27.2 37.6 71.0 39.7 35.7 23.0 34.2 47.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 28.0 36.0 42.7 73.9 40.6 37.6 30.8 43.1 57.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 20.0 25.4 37.2 70.0 38.8 36.0 21.8 32.7 45.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.6 24.2 38.7 72.3 40.0 38.0 19.9 31.4 45.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 20.6 26.4 38.3 70.6 39.3 37.2 22.2 34.3 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 31.7 41.8 43.4 71.6 38.9 35.7 35.8 54.3 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 16.1 28.8 47.9 84.3 51.0 42.9 16.8 27.8 42.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 16.9 22.0 36.9 71.0 39.8 36.7 18.0 28.6 42.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 16.4 20.6 31.5 70.8 39.9 37.5 16.9 26.9 39.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 29.4 38.4 47.3 77.7 42.6 39.5 31.6 44.2 58.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 21.6 28.1 32.7 70.1 39.9 36.8 22.9 36.4 53.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 33.9 45.3 62.0 85.7 48.0 44.6 34.4 46.8 61.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.1 29.1 35.8 69.9 39.0 35.4 25.2 36.8 50.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 20.1 27.4 33.8 72.2 40.8 37.2 22.3 34.1 48.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 20.7 27.9 35.0 71.0 40.1 36.2 22.5 36.5 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 27.3 36.0 41.2 72.4 39.8 36.7 30.3 45.8 64.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 19.3 24.5 37.9 69.4 39.3 36.0 20.1 32.9 49.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 42.9 31.7 43.9 77.3 44.0 41.3 24.7 36.1 49.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 20.0 23.4 33.6 64.6 35.9 33.8 21.9 32.4 45.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 16.4 25.2 42.5 78.9 46.5 39.9 17.7 27.4 39.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 43.8 56.2 51.7 80.6 44.3 41.2 45.7 61.7 79.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 17.9 22.1 32.4 68.8 39.1 36.6 18.6 29.8 44.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------