***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 6.2 6.9 9.1 -0.7 37.3 38.8 6.6 7.9 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.9 8.9 -0.6 39.4 40.7 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.1 9.3 -0.7 37.9 39.4 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.7 6.6 -0.4 41.8 42.7 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.6 6.0 7.5 -0.7 36.6 38.1 5.8 6.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 4.8 4.6 4.1 -1.6 21.9 24.3 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.2 9.0 -0.5 41.1 42.2 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 0.8 0.6 4.4 -1.7 20.6 23.0 1.4 2.4 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 6.5 6.7 7.3 -1.1 29.8 31.7 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 6.3 6.2 5.5 -1.4 25.0 27.2 6.7 7.6 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.9 5.8 6.6 -1.2 27.2 29.5 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 4.8 4.8 5.4 -1.5 23.6 26.1 5.3 6.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 5.3 5.3 5.5 -1.5 24.4 26.6 5.8 6.7 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.4 7.5 -0.6 37.5 38.9 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.3 7.9 -0.7 34.8 36.2 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.0 6.1 -1.1 30.8 32.5 7.2 8.1 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.5 8.8 -0.3 44.0 44.7 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 5.5 5.2 -1.1 29.8 31.8 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.0 8.9 -0.6 38.5 39.9 6.7 7.7 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 1.2 1.0 2.8 -2.1 18.6 21.0 1.9 2.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.2 8.5 -0.9 34.0 35.7 6.1 7.3 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.4 6.6 9.0 -0.4 42.0 43.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.6 8.8 -0.8 35.8 37.5 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.5 7.4 -0.7 36.3 37.9 6.3 7.2 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.4 6.8 8.2 -1.0 33.7 35.6 6.7 7.9 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 5.8 5.9 4.9 -1.6 24.3 26.4 6.3 7.0 7.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 6.0 6.8 8.7 -0.7 38.2 39.6 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.7 6.8 -0.6 38.8 40.0 5.5 6.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 4.3 4.1 4.0 -1.7 22.2 24.6 4.9 5.8 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.1 9.1 -0.7 38.0 39.5 6.7 7.9 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------