***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.0 7.8 0.1 51.3 51.5 3.3 4.9 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 7.3 -0.1 49.1 49.9 3.1 4.7 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.9 7.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 5.3 6.9 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.4 4.9 0.1 51.0 51.3 0.7 2.3 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.9 5.2 0.0 49.5 50.1 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.4 3.1 -0.1 48.3 50.6 2.2 3.5 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.7 7.4 0.0 50.2 50.7 3.1 4.6 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 0.5 -0.5 3.2 -0.3 45.8 47.8 -1.7 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.9 5.5 -0.1 48.9 49.7 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.5 4.0 -0.3 46.2 47.9 3.4 4.8 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.8 4.3 4.5 -0.1 48.5 49.5 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.4 3.9 -0.2 47.9 49.5 2.2 3.6 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 3.8 3.6 -0.2 47.5 49.4 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.9 4.8 5.2 -0.4 44.6 46.3 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.8 5.8 0.2 52.4 52.6 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.6 5.1 4.1 -0.1 49.1 50.3 3.8 5.2 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 7.1 -0.1 49.2 49.9 3.2 4.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.0 3.1 -0.5 43.1 45.6 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.6 7.2 -0.1 48.4 49.3 3.2 4.8 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.1 -0.2 1.5 -0.7 41.6 44.9 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.6 6.8 0.0 49.9 50.5 3.0 4.6 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.7 3.8 6.8 -0.2 46.9 48.1 2.6 4.1 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.4 7.0 -0.2 47.5 48.5 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.0 4.9 -0.4 45.1 46.8 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.2 6.4 0.1 50.9 51.3 3.6 5.1 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.3 -0.3 45.8 48.0 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 7.3 0.1 51.7 51.9 3.3 5.0 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.5 4.9 0.1 51.1 51.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.3 2.5 -0.7 41.9 44.7 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.9 7.4 0.0 49.8 50.4 3.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------