***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.0 7.4 1.2 65.9 61.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 5.9 5.5 7.1 1.3 66.8 62.5 2.2 3.8 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 7.9 7.7 7.3 1.2 66.0 61.6 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.1 2.5 4.4 1.0 63.0 59.8 -0.6 1.2 2.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.6 4.8 1.0 62.9 59.6 1.7 3.4 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 4.4 3.4 2.7 0.7 59.3 57.9 0.9 2.5 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.8 5.2 7.1 1.2 65.6 61.5 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 1.8 0.9 3.0 0.9 61.4 59.1 -2.1 -0.3 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.6 5.2 1.1 64.0 60.4 2.6 4.2 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 5.7 5.1 3.8 1.0 62.6 59.8 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.3 4.5 4.0 0.8 61.4 58.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 4.5 3.6 3.4 0.9 61.1 58.8 1.0 2.6 4.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 0.8 3.7 3.2 0.8 59.6 57.7 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.9 5.1 1.1 64.2 60.6 3.3 4.7 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.0 5.2 0.9 63.2 59.9 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.1 5.2 3.6 0.8 60.7 58.4 2.5 4.2 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.4 6.9 1.2 65.9 62.0 2.3 3.9 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.5 3.0 1.0 62.1 59.6 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 5.9 5.6 7.1 1.3 67.0 62.5 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 1.7 0.8 1.6 0.9 60.0 58.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.5 6.5 1.1 65.1 61.2 2.3 4.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 5.2 4.8 6.7 1.2 65.6 61.8 1.8 3.3 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.8 5.5 6.9 1.2 66.3 61.8 2.6 4.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 5.2 4.8 4.7 1.0 63.5 60.2 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 6.2 5.8 6.1 1.2 65.3 61.7 2.7 4.3 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.9 2.8 0.6 57.8 56.5 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.1 6.9 1.3 65.6 61.6 2.4 4.3 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 4.2 3.6 4.4 0.9 62.2 59.3 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 4.4 3.5 2.6 0.9 61.3 59.3 0.6 2.4 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 6.3 5.9 7.2 1.2 66.4 62.0 2.6 4.3 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------