***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.8 8.1 0.0 50.5 49.4 5.0 5.8 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 7.8 0.0 50.5 49.4 4.8 5.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.8 8.1 0.0 50.2 49.0 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.2 5.4 0.1 53.5 51.5 2.2 3.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.8 6.0 -0.1 48.7 47.9 4.2 4.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.5 4.0 3.5 -0.4 41.9 43.4 3.6 4.3 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.6 7.9 0.1 51.5 50.3 4.8 5.6 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -0.2 0.3 3.7 -0.5 39.6 41.1 0.0 0.8 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.7 6.2 -0.1 47.0 46.6 5.2 5.8 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.8 5.3 4.6 -0.3 42.5 43.3 4.9 5.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 4.9 5.2 -0.2 44.6 44.9 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.4 3.9 4.4 -0.3 42.2 43.1 3.6 4.2 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.2 -0.4 41.9 43.1 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.0 6.0 -0.1 47.1 47.0 5.5 6.1 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.7 6.6 0.2 54.3 52.6 5.0 5.6 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.2 5.8 4.8 -0.2 46.3 46.3 5.3 6.0 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.7 7.6 0.1 52.2 51.1 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 4.1 3.9 -0.4 42.3 43.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.6 7.8 0.0 49.9 48.8 5.0 5.6 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 0.3 0.6 2.1 -0.8 34.6 37.9 0.5 1.3 1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.4 7.4 0.0 49.2 48.2 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 7.6 0.0 49.9 49.2 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 7.7 -0.1 48.5 47.7 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.1 5.8 -0.1 46.8 46.7 4.6 5.2 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.9 7.0 -0.1 48.9 48.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.2 4.6 3.8 -0.5 38.8 40.9 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 7.7 0.0 50.9 49.7 5.1 5.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.4 4.3 5.6 0.1 53.4 51.8 3.6 4.2 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.9 3.3 3.2 -0.6 37.5 39.9 3.1 3.9 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.2 5.9 8.0 0.0 50.1 49.0 5.1 5.9 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------