***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 14.8 15.9 15.9 -0.8 39.9 43.5 15.3 16.7 18.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 14.9 15.8 15.9 -1.0 37.7 42.3 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 15.2 16.4 16.2 -0.9 39.4 43.3 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 8.2 10.3 13.8 0.0 50.6 50.5 8.7 10.3 11.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 15.3 16.7 14.5 -0.7 42.0 45.2 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.0 12.9 -0.9 39.9 44.0 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 14.7 15.6 15.8 -0.9 38.0 42.4 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 6.6 7.7 13.0 -1.0 39.2 44.0 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 15.4 16.8 15.3 -0.6 42.4 45.8 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.9 16.1 13.9 -0.9 40.1 44.5 15.5 17.0 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 15.0 16.4 14.7 -0.8 41.0 44.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 15.0 16.2 13.9 -0.8 40.5 44.7 15.5 17.1 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 15.7 16.5 14.0 -1.3 35.7 41.3 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 15.5 16.3 14.9 -1.3 35.3 41.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 14.5 16.3 15.5 0.4 55.4 53.5 14.7 16.0 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 16.1 17.4 14.3 -0.8 40.4 44.3 16.7 18.2 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 14.4 15.2 15.4 -1.1 36.1 41.1 15.0 16.2 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 14.3 15.2 13.3 -1.2 37.5 43.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 14.7 15.8 16.1 -0.9 38.5 42.9 15.3 16.6 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 11.8 12.6 11.2 -1.5 33.8 40.9 12.5 14.0 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 15.3 16.4 15.8 -0.8 40.1 43.9 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 15.0 15.5 15.4 -1.3 33.9 39.5 15.5 16.7 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 15.2 16.3 16.3 -0.8 40.2 44.3 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 15.4 16.5 15.0 -1.1 37.8 43.0 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.8 15.9 14.7 -0.7 40.9 44.1 15.3 16.5 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 15.4 16.4 13.3 -0.8 39.6 44.5 15.9 17.3 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 15.3 16.3 15.3 -0.9 39.1 42.9 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.7 14.5 0.1 51.6 51.3 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 10.7 11.6 12.5 -1.4 34.6 41.2 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.8 15.8 16.0 -0.9 38.4 42.7 15.4 16.6 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------