***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.6 15.3 0.2 52.8 52.4 13.2 15.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.1 15.4 15.2 0.1 51.2 51.4 13.4 15.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 15.8 0.3 53.8 53.2 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.2 13.4 0.8 58.9 57.1 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.6 14.1 0.6 56.1 54.9 13.9 15.9 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.6 12.7 0.4 54.0 53.9 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.3 15.2 0.1 51.4 51.6 13.2 15.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.7 12.8 0.3 53.2 53.0 5.6 7.4 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.9 14.7 0.5 55.7 54.6 14.2 16.2 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.2 13.7 0.4 54.2 53.6 13.8 15.7 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.7 14.0 0.5 55.6 54.6 14.1 16.1 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 13.6 0.4 54.6 54.0 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.4 13.2 0.3 53.0 53.0 14.2 16.1 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.8 16.5 14.5 0.1 51.0 51.1 14.2 16.3 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.9 13.9 0.8 59.7 57.9 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.3 13.8 0.6 55.7 54.9 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 12.8 14.8 14.8 0.0 49.5 50.0 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 13.4 0.2 52.5 52.3 13.1 15.1 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.6 15.4 0.2 51.8 51.8 13.4 15.4 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.3 12.4 11.0 -0.1 48.8 50.0 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.4 15.1 0.4 54.6 53.8 14.0 15.9 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.2 15.4 14.7 -0.2 48.0 48.7 13.6 15.6 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 13.3 16.0 15.7 0.3 53.0 52.5 13.6 15.7 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.7 14.6 0.3 53.2 52.7 14.2 16.4 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.5 13.8 0.4 54.0 53.4 13.3 15.1 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.2 12.9 0.4 53.9 53.8 14.0 15.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.8 14.7 0.2 52.7 52.5 13.6 15.5 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.1 13.7 0.8 59.0 57.3 13.4 15.2 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.7 12.5 0.0 50.3 50.8 9.7 11.7 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 15.3 0.2 51.9 51.9 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------