***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.7 14.6 1.1 62.6 60.4 12.4 14.3 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.1 14.5 1.1 62.3 60.1 12.1 13.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.3 15.1 1.3 63.9 61.1 12.6 14.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.9 12.3 1.2 62.7 60.1 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.8 13.2 1.1 62.1 59.8 12.5 14.5 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 16.3 15.5 12.2 1.1 61.5 59.1 12.1 14.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 14.3 14.8 14.4 1.0 61.9 60.0 11.8 13.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.5 12.3 1.2 62.5 60.0 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.3 13.9 1.3 63.4 60.7 12.8 14.8 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.2 16.0 13.2 1.3 63.4 60.7 12.4 14.4 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.6 16.3 13.2 1.2 62.3 60.0 12.7 14.8 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.1 12.9 1.2 63.0 60.5 12.5 14.6 16.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.2 12.5 1.1 61.8 59.9 12.8 14.8 16.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.5 14.3 1.5 64.7 61.9 12.4 14.6 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.9 14.3 12.7 1.0 61.7 59.4 11.8 13.3 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 17.7 16.9 12.9 1.2 62.5 60.2 13.5 15.5 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.7 14.1 14.1 1.0 61.2 59.2 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.2 13.2 1.5 64.9 62.0 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 14.8 15.4 14.8 1.2 63.1 60.6 12.1 14.0 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.3 10.8 1.1 60.7 59.2 10.1 12.1 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 15.5 16.0 14.4 1.2 62.8 60.3 12.7 14.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.8 14.1 1.0 60.8 58.8 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 16.2 15.7 15.2 1.4 64.5 61.5 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 17.2 16.8 14.3 1.6 65.6 62.4 12.7 14.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 11.5 14.8 13.0 1.0 61.6 59.5 11.8 13.6 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 16.5 15.9 12.3 1.1 62.9 60.7 12.7 14.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.5 15.8 14.0 1.1 62.4 60.4 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.2 12.6 1.2 62.4 59.9 12.0 13.8 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 13.3 12.7 12.4 1.4 63.6 61.3 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.1 14.6 1.1 62.7 60.4 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------