***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.5 15.9 0.1 52.2 51.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.3 15.8 0.0 50.2 49.9 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 16.3 0.2 53.3 51.9 15.7 16.8 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.8 13.7 0.7 62.3 58.7 9.0 10.0 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.0 14.5 0.3 54.4 52.6 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.3 12.9 0.0 50.0 49.7 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.0 15.7 0.0 49.2 49.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.3 13.1 0.0 50.8 50.3 7.4 8.3 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.4 15.3 0.4 56.5 54.1 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.7 14.1 0.2 53.4 52.0 15.5 16.6 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.2 14.6 0.2 53.8 52.3 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 13.9 0.2 52.9 51.7 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.9 17.0 13.9 -0.1 47.9 48.5 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.1 15.3 0.1 51.5 50.8 16.0 17.1 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.4 14.9 0.8 64.1 60.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.8 14.2 0.2 52.7 51.6 16.6 17.7 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.5 15.4 -0.2 47.1 47.6 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.9 13.7 0.1 51.1 50.5 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.4 16.1 0.1 52.2 51.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 12.3 13.2 11.3 -0.4 43.2 45.3 12.5 13.5 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.0 15.8 0.2 53.4 52.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.1 15.4 -0.2 45.6 46.4 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.9 16.4 0.3 55.7 53.9 15.6 16.6 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.3 15.3 0.2 53.3 51.9 16.0 17.0 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 14.5 0.1 52.2 51.3 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.8 13.2 0.0 49.5 49.6 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.6 15.2 0.0 50.7 50.2 15.6 16.5 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.8 14.3 0.7 62.7 59.1 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.3 12.4 12.9 -0.2 47.0 47.8 11.5 12.6 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.2 15.9 0.1 51.2 50.6 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------