***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.6 9.4 11.4 96.9 64.3 50.3 1.8 4.9 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 12.8 11.5 114.2 69.2 52.9 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.4 11.2 10.3 90.3 61.9 48.5 2.7 6.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.7 10.8 71.2 55.3 44.3 3.7 8.6 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.9 12.2 87.9 61.4 49.1 3.2 7.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.2 8.9 10.0 63.9 51.2 42.3 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.8 11.7 12.3 120.3 70.6 53.3 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.7 13.5 13.4 77.0 55.8 46.0 5.3 10.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.1 12.2 87.1 60.4 50.0 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.9 13.7 85.6 59.2 49.4 3.7 8.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.4 12.1 81.2 59.0 47.3 3.1 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.8 7.5 11.4 73.2 55.3 44.5 2.3 5.9 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.8 8.9 12.0 71.4 55.0 43.1 3.2 7.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.7 17.6 13.7 100.8 64.5 50.2 3.9 9.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.0 5.6 8.2 52.8 50.0 38.4 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.1 11.7 75.7 56.9 45.2 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.4 9.5 12.4 126.0 72.2 54.4 2.0 4.3 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 14.5 14.7 89.9 60.5 51.1 4.7 9.7 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 13.1 11.1 106.6 66.9 51.7 2.7 6.4 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 10.3 15.8 80.1 56.9 46.7 3.4 7.8 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.3 11.1 85.1 59.9 48.4 3.8 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.3 12.7 12.7 125.2 71.7 54.4 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.2 11.6 10.8 100.2 64.7 50.2 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.3 15.2 12.3 90.0 60.9 49.2 4.5 10.0 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 12.1 12.8 98.1 64.9 51.6 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.6 10.1 62.8 51.2 40.7 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.4 12.4 101.8 66.0 51.4 2.7 6.2 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.5 9.7 63.0 52.5 41.6 2.2 5.0 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.6 17.1 15.0 87.6 59.5 49.2 5.8 12.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.4 11.1 104.6 66.4 51.1 2.3 5.4 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------