***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.10.2017.-29.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 8.4 12.4 109.2 66.8 50.8 2.5 4.9 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.1 7.9 11.0 107.5 66.7 52.3 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.5 9.8 12.5 111.6 67.6 51.2 3.1 5.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.9 12.2 95.4 62.7 47.7 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.1 9.1 12.2 96.2 62.6 49.5 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.5 7.6 13.0 99.2 64.0 51.3 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.2 10.5 102.4 65.1 51.2 2.3 4.0 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.2 10.9 13.1 95.2 62.0 49.8 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.4 8.5 12.8 99.2 63.5 50.3 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.0 13.1 95.7 61.9 49.7 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.9 11.2 90.6 60.9 48.4 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.2 11.6 93.2 61.9 49.6 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.2 8.4 11.9 91.5 61.6 49.6 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.2 13.2 14.9 110.6 66.9 52.3 3.5 7.3 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.1 7.0 12.4 95.4 63.9 45.7 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.9 11.3 91.1 61.4 49.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.7 10.5 101.5 64.6 51.0 2.1 4.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 9.3 14.2 100.1 62.9 50.3 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.0 9.7 11.5 111.5 67.6 51.8 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.4 18.6 105.8 65.0 51.2 3.2 6.5 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.1 12.2 101.2 64.4 49.5 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.2 10.3 11.8 107.3 66.1 50.6 2.7 5.8 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.5 11.3 12.1 113.2 67.8 50.5 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.1 10.9 13.6 106.1 65.3 51.0 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.4 7.2 12.5 97.8 63.4 49.1 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.3 11.3 14.6 108.8 67.4 53.1 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.0 7.0 12.3 103.0 64.9 50.4 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.8 11.4 92.2 62.1 46.7 2.4 4.6 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.7 15.7 103.6 64.1 51.3 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 5.8 7.9 11.7 111.0 67.7 52.4 2.3 4.5 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------