***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.10.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-05.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 50.1 48.2 52.8 114.5 66.7 61.2 21.6 33.2 47.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 48.5 47.4 49.3 119.4 68.9 62.4 18.6 30.0 44.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 42.8 52.0 51.2 113.2 66.1 59.7 24.5 37.0 52.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 48.3 51.6 54.9 102.4 61.1 54.3 29.1 41.6 56.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 41.1 46.8 55.9 110.0 64.5 57.3 25.3 35.8 48.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 37.0 39.2 55.4 102.9 60.7 53.8 20.0 31.0 44.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 42.9 40.9 49.1 117.0 67.8 61.8 18.3 27.8 39.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 56.8 59.3 59.4 103.3 60.4 54.2 36.4 49.9 65.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 39.3 45.8 56.5 110.6 64.7 57.7 23.0 34.0 46.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 49.2 53.0 59.4 106.0 62.0 55.3 30.7 42.9 56.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 39.2 42.6 54.9 105.8 62.3 55.1 22.4 33.2 46.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 38.5 41.8 54.7 105.0 61.7 55.0 20.2 31.9 46.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 41.3 44.3 57.4 105.1 61.8 54.0 22.1 34.0 48.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 66.2 79.7 62.5 114.5 66.6 59.5 38.4 56.8 78.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 34.7 36.0 51.6 95.5 58.9 52.0 17.9 29.0 42.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 35.3 39.7 55.6 107.0 63.0 55.7 18.6 29.3 42.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 43.6 41.4 49.2 118.2 68.4 61.1 17.1 26.9 39.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 51.4 55.5 62.7 107.5 62.6 56.1 32.9 45.0 58.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 60.2 58.9 49.8 119.3 68.9 62.0 23.7 37.6 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 53.2 54.2 73.0 101.9 59.0 53.5 33.3 46.2 61.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 42.2 49.0 53.2 110.3 64.7 57.9 25.8 37.1 50.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 53.5 52.0 52.1 120.4 69.4 61.2 21.8 33.6 48.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 60.6 59.4 51.4 117.9 68.2 60.9 25.5 39.2 56.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 56.2 65.3 58.0 111.2 64.8 58.2 32.7 48.1 66.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 40.4 49.9 58.3 114.1 66.5 60.7 21.9 34.1 49.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 39.6 43.9 59.4 107.1 62.9 56.0 22.6 33.6 47.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 47.4 45.9 55.7 115.1 67.0 61.6 22.4 32.6 45.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 32.9 33.9 51.4 98.0 59.3 52.5 18.0 27.5 39.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 69.7 73.4 66.1 105.7 61.4 55.4 46.0 61.3 78.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 48.5 47.7 50.1 117.7 68.2 62.3 19.4 30.9 45.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------