***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 5.7 5.5 8.1 -1.5 24.3 29.8 6.3 7.5 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 5.5 5.5 7.6 -1.6 23.1 28.3 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 7.9 7.8 8.2 -1.5 22.1 28.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.3 5.7 -1.2 25.1 32.3 3.8 5.0 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.9 4.8 6.9 -1.3 24.8 31.9 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.8 5.5 5.3 -0.4 40.9 45.2 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.6 7.6 -1.7 22.1 27.5 6.4 7.5 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.0 5.2 -0.8 32.4 38.5 1.0 2.1 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 6.0 6.1 7.3 -1.1 26.9 33.4 6.5 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.0 5.8 -1.1 27.7 34.5 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.9 -1.1 26.0 33.3 5.9 6.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.6 4.9 6.1 -0.9 32.0 38.1 4.9 5.9 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.2 5.7 6.5 -0.6 36.6 41.0 5.5 6.4 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 6.4 6.2 6.6 -1.4 22.7 28.9 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 6.5 6.5 7.9 -1.0 28.5 34.8 6.8 7.6 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.6 6.8 6.4 -0.9 31.4 37.0 6.9 7.8 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 5.9 5.7 7.1 -1.7 21.9 27.7 6.5 7.5 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.7 4.7 5.1 -1.3 24.1 31.2 5.3 6.3 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 5.7 5.7 7.7 -1.5 23.4 28.6 6.4 7.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 1.8 4.2 -0.6 39.1 43.6 1.5 2.5 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.2 5.0 8.0 -1.4 23.2 30.1 5.9 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 5.1 4.9 7.5 -1.6 21.1 26.7 5.8 6.8 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 5.5 5.5 7.9 -1.3 24.2 29.5 6.2 7.2 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 5.4 5.2 6.7 -1.4 21.9 28.7 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.9 5.8 7.7 -1.4 25.4 31.6 6.4 7.6 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.6 6.2 -0.2 46.2 49.1 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 5.5 5.4 7.9 -1.4 25.8 31.3 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 4.8 4.7 6.3 -1.1 26.6 33.5 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.2 4.6 -1.1 28.6 35.1 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 5.7 5.7 7.9 -1.6 22.9 28.0 6.5 7.7 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------