***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.6 6.3 0.2 53.2 53.2 2.6 4.3 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.1 6.0 0.3 54.7 54.2 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 6.3 0.2 52.9 53.6 4.5 6.0 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -1.0 1.2 3.5 0.2 52.5 53.1 -0.7 1.0 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.4 4.0 0.2 52.3 52.9 1.6 3.2 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 0.5 2.6 2.4 0.1 51.1 52.5 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.0 6.0 0.3 54.2 53.8 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 -2.8 -0.2 2.7 0.2 52.4 53.3 -2.2 -0.5 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.6 0.2 53.0 53.7 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.1 3.4 0.2 52.9 53.9 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.3 3.4 3.5 0.1 50.9 51.8 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 0.5 2.5 3.0 0.0 50.3 51.4 0.9 2.5 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.5 2.7 -0.1 48.8 50.4 1.0 2.6 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.9 4.6 0.3 53.9 54.5 3.3 4.6 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.1 4.5 0.2 52.9 53.3 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 49.6 50.8 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.3 6.0 0.4 56.1 55.0 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.6 3.0 0.2 53.2 54.3 1.0 2.4 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.2 6.0 0.3 53.9 53.9 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -2.1 0.1 1.7 0.3 53.8 54.9 -1.9 -0.3 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.1 5.6 0.2 53.1 53.7 2.2 3.8 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.6 5.8 0.3 54.6 54.2 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 4.5 4.2 5.9 0.2 53.0 53.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.6 4.3 0.2 52.7 53.8 2.1 3.4 4.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.5 5.1 0.3 53.8 53.9 2.6 4.2 5.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.8 2.6 -0.1 48.6 50.2 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.4 5.8 0.3 53.7 53.4 2.3 4.0 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 0.6 2.6 3.6 0.2 52.4 53.1 0.9 2.4 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.2 2.6 2.7 0.3 53.8 54.6 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.4 6.1 0.3 53.8 53.7 2.5 4.1 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------