***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.8 15.5 15.0 -1.0 36.8 40.8 15.2 16.5 17.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.3 15.0 -1.2 34.5 39.3 15.2 16.5 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.0 15.3 -1.1 36.6 41.1 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.2 12.3 -0.7 40.6 43.8 8.5 10.1 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 15.2 16.5 13.7 -0.7 40.9 44.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 15.1 17.0 13.1 0.3 53.0 52.2 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 14.7 15.3 15.0 -1.2 34.6 39.2 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.7 8.3 12.8 -0.3 46.8 48.3 7.2 8.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 15.3 16.6 14.4 -0.7 40.9 44.1 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 14.8 16.4 13.4 -0.5 44.3 46.6 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 15.0 16.6 14.1 -0.5 43.3 46.0 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 15.0 16.7 13.5 -0.3 46.1 47.9 15.5 17.1 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 15.9 17.5 14.0 -0.3 46.9 48.3 16.3 17.8 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 15.2 16.2 14.3 -1.1 37.3 41.8 15.8 17.3 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.1 13.9 -0.6 41.4 44.3 14.5 15.7 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 16.2 17.8 13.8 -0.4 45.1 47.3 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.8 14.6 -1.2 33.5 38.2 14.8 16.0 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 14.1 15.6 13.0 -0.6 43.5 46.1 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.3 15.1 -1.2 34.6 39.6 15.1 16.5 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 12.1 13.9 11.6 -0.1 49.3 49.8 12.5 14.0 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 15.1 16.2 14.9 -0.9 38.4 42.2 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.3 14.6 -1.3 32.9 38.0 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 15.0 15.8 15.3 -1.1 36.0 40.8 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 15.2 16.4 14.3 -0.9 39.2 43.2 15.9 17.4 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 14.6 15.5 13.8 -0.9 38.0 41.5 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 15.7 17.3 13.3 0.0 49.5 49.7 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 15.3 16.1 14.5 -1.0 37.2 41.1 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 14.5 15.7 13.1 -0.6 42.7 45.4 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 10.8 12.5 12.6 -0.5 44.8 46.8 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 14.7 15.4 15.1 -1.1 35.1 39.8 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------