***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 12.7 15.4 14.6 0.2 52.6 52.1 13.0 15.1 17.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 12.8 15.0 14.4 0.0 50.2 50.2 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.8 14.8 0.2 52.2 51.7 13.6 15.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.5 9.4 12.4 0.3 54.1 53.0 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.3 15.9 13.2 0.3 53.5 52.9 13.6 15.6 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.1 12.8 1.0 60.5 58.5 13.1 15.0 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 12.6 14.7 14.3 0.0 49.7 50.0 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.0 12.6 0.7 57.8 56.6 5.6 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.3 13.8 0.4 54.0 53.2 13.9 15.8 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.1 13.1 0.6 56.4 55.3 13.6 15.4 17.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.4 13.3 0.5 55.3 54.2 13.8 15.8 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.9 13.1 0.5 55.9 55.1 13.4 15.3 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.4 12.9 0.6 56.3 55.6 13.9 15.7 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.0 16.5 13.9 0.3 53.4 52.9 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 12.7 15.2 13.1 0.4 55.4 53.6 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 17.1 17.0 13.1 0.5 55.9 54.8 14.5 16.4 18.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.3 14.1 -0.1 49.1 49.5 12.6 14.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.5 13.0 0.7 57.1 55.9 12.8 14.7 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.9 15.2 14.6 0.0 50.4 50.4 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 13.5 11.4 0.9 60.4 59.1 10.5 12.4 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.9 14.3 0.3 53.0 52.5 13.7 15.6 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 12.9 15.1 14.1 -0.1 48.8 49.3 13.3 15.2 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.1 15.6 14.8 0.1 51.4 51.0 13.5 15.4 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.6 13.9 0.4 54.5 53.7 14.0 16.1 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.6 15.1 13.2 0.3 53.8 53.0 12.9 14.7 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.1 12.8 0.5 56.9 56.5 13.7 15.4 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.0 15.6 14.0 0.2 53.2 52.6 13.4 15.2 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.7 15.4 12.8 0.4 55.2 53.7 13.0 14.9 16.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.3 12.5 0.7 58.0 56.9 9.5 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 12.8 15.0 14.5 0.1 50.7 50.6 13.0 14.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------