***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 16.0 15.6 13.6 1.3 65.2 61.8 11.8 13.8 15.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.6 15.3 13.7 1.4 66.9 63.2 11.7 13.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.0 14.0 1.4 65.4 62.3 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.6 11.0 1.2 63.1 60.6 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 16.2 15.5 12.0 1.2 62.9 60.9 12.0 14.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 16.0 15.8 11.6 1.7 67.0 63.7 11.8 13.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 15.3 15.0 13.6 1.3 66.6 62.8 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 8.8 8.6 11.8 1.7 67.3 64.6 4.8 6.7 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 16.6 16.1 12.8 1.4 64.4 62.2 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.2 15.9 12.4 1.7 66.7 64.1 12.1 14.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.1 12.2 1.4 64.0 62.0 12.3 14.4 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.1 12.1 1.4 65.4 63.2 12.2 14.2 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.3 11.8 1.4 65.1 62.8 12.4 14.5 16.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.5 13.5 1.9 68.0 64.8 12.1 14.2 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.6 14.3 11.7 1.2 64.6 61.6 11.5 13.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 17.4 16.7 12.0 1.3 63.9 61.8 13.0 15.0 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 14.8 14.6 13.6 1.5 67.9 63.8 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 15.3 15.3 12.6 2.0 68.5 65.5 11.2 13.1 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 15.7 15.4 13.9 1.4 66.5 63.0 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 13.7 13.9 10.7 1.9 69.4 65.9 9.6 11.6 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 16.4 15.7 13.3 1.3 64.1 61.5 12.2 14.1 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.2 13.5 1.4 67.1 63.2 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.5 14.2 1.5 66.5 63.1 11.6 13.6 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.9 16.7 13.4 1.8 67.6 64.6 12.4 14.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 15.2 14.8 12.0 1.3 64.8 61.7 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 16.4 16.2 11.8 1.5 67.7 64.5 12.4 14.3 16.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 16.1 15.7 13.0 1.3 65.7 62.1 12.0 13.9 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.8 11.4 1.2 63.4 60.9 11.8 13.5 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 12.9 13.0 12.0 2.0 69.1 66.0 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.4 15.1 13.7 1.4 66.2 62.7 11.5 13.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------