***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 16.5 15.2 14.4 -0.6 36.6 42.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.2 14.5 -0.7 35.1 40.3 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.7 14.7 -0.6 37.2 42.5 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.0 11.7 -0.6 37.8 43.2 8.7 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.9 15.8 13.0 -0.6 38.6 44.2 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.3 12.5 0.2 54.5 56.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.9 14.4 -0.7 34.7 40.1 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.9 12.2 -0.1 47.2 50.8 7.2 8.1 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.1 13.7 -0.5 40.3 45.4 15.6 16.7 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.0 12.9 -0.3 44.9 49.0 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 17.1 16.1 13.3 -0.4 42.2 47.2 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.0 12.8 -0.3 45.0 49.4 15.3 16.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.3 16.7 13.2 -0.1 47.2 51.2 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.2 13.9 -0.5 40.2 44.5 15.7 16.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.0 13.1 -0.5 39.7 44.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 17.8 17.1 13.1 -0.3 44.8 49.2 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.6 14.1 -0.7 34.6 39.9 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.3 12.6 -0.2 46.3 49.8 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.2 14.6 -0.7 35.5 40.7 15.0 16.0 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.4 11.1 0.1 52.4 54.3 12.3 13.3 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.9 15.7 14.3 -0.6 37.8 43.3 15.4 16.5 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.1 14.1 -0.8 33.5 39.0 15.1 16.1 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.5 14.7 -0.6 37.5 42.3 15.3 16.3 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.3 13.8 -0.4 41.8 46.1 15.7 16.8 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.0 13.1 -0.6 37.7 43.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.5 12.6 -0.1 48.8 51.8 15.6 16.5 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.7 15.5 13.9 -0.6 37.7 43.0 15.3 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.3 12.5 -0.5 40.6 45.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.2 12.1 -0.1 48.3 51.3 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.7 15.0 14.5 -0.7 35.4 40.7 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------