***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-16.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 14.0 17.9 22.1 158.8 79.0 72.1 2.2 5.3 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.7 19.5 21.3 173.8 81.4 71.9 2.9 6.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 15.9 20.1 21.0 156.9 78.7 72.5 2.7 6.5 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 18.9 28.6 30.8 183.4 83.2 77.2 3.1 7.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 15.6 19.1 23.9 154.4 78.3 72.9 3.2 6.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 19.6 25.1 29.4 169.1 80.8 76.0 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 12.3 16.7 21.6 173.7 81.4 71.4 2.4 5.2 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 19.9 22.9 25.1 133.8 73.9 68.4 4.3 9.4 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 15.4 20.0 24.1 152.8 78.0 72.4 3.3 7.0 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.7 19.5 24.0 136.4 74.4 68.4 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.1 18.2 24.8 150.6 77.5 70.9 3.1 6.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 14.3 17.6 25.0 143.5 76.1 71.0 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 16.2 18.7 25.9 139.5 75.4 71.3 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 22.2 25.6 22.0 140.2 75.5 69.3 4.0 9.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.6 21.9 33.4 203.2 85.3 77.4 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 14.4 18.6 27.4 155.2 78.3 73.6 2.4 5.9 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 9.4 13.2 21.4 180.9 82.6 73.3 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 19.2 21.4 23.3 133.3 73.8 68.6 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 15.5 22.6 21.3 171.0 81.0 71.9 2.5 6.3 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 14.3 14.8 24.6 120.9 70.8 65.5 2.8 6.5 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 16.1 20.2 23.8 157.5 78.8 72.9 3.3 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.9 17.0 20.7 171.2 81.1 72.5 2.6 5.6 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.0 21.7 21.6 164.7 80.0 71.8 2.7 6.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 21.0 25.2 21.7 143.2 76.1 70.3 3.8 8.9 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 16.1 18.6 23.4 147.3 77.0 71.7 3.1 6.7 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 16.2 19.6 26.1 149.9 77.5 72.7 3.5 7.4 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.4 16.5 22.3 154.8 78.3 71.5 2.5 5.6 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 11.8 17.1 30.2 182.6 82.8 76.5 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 24.1 25.9 23.2 127.9 72.6 67.5 5.4 11.3 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.9 17.9 21.3 170.7 81.0 71.6 2.4 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------