***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.10.2016.-23.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.9 18.0 15.0 122.3 71.3 58.6 3.8 8.3 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 14.2 17.2 14.8 141.3 75.6 61.7 2.6 6.2 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 17.1 18.0 15.7 128.1 72.5 61.0 3.5 7.7 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 14.1 15.0 102.8 65.7 53.6 3.4 7.6 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 10.0 13.3 14.9 104.9 66.3 56.4 4.2 7.9 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.1 15.1 117.0 69.4 55.6 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 12.9 14.7 14.6 136.0 74.5 61.4 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.5 14.9 104.6 65.7 54.0 5.3 10.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.9 12.8 13.8 101.4 65.7 56.0 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.4 15.5 14.6 100.7 64.9 55.1 5.1 9.6 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.4 16.7 110.9 67.4 56.1 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 12.4 14.4 109.9 67.2 55.2 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 13.2 12.4 15.3 115.9 69.4 58.2 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 25.6 27.1 17.3 125.7 71.6 60.6 6.1 12.9 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.5 13.2 16.0 105.6 66.9 52.7 2.5 6.4 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.1 14.3 105.7 66.5 53.7 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 12.4 14.5 14.7 138.8 75.0 60.1 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.5 13.5 14.4 101.6 64.8 55.9 4.1 8.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 20.1 24.1 15.2 141.1 75.6 61.5 4.2 9.2 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 16.7 17.3 103.0 64.6 54.4 5.1 10.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.0 15.3 14.1 109.0 67.6 57.1 4.1 8.3 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 15.9 19.6 15.2 143.3 76.1 61.1 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 5.0 22.0 15.8 132.8 73.6 59.2 4.1 9.1 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.6 19.7 15.3 113.4 68.4 59.0 4.9 10.1 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 18.4 17.9 16.8 121.0 70.8 60.4 3.6 8.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.9 16.6 127.1 72.2 57.5 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 15.9 16.3 16.0 123.1 71.3 59.3 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.1 15.2 106.6 67.1 54.4 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.5 18.4 15.3 101.1 63.8 54.6 6.7 12.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 17.0 20.0 15.0 135.5 74.4 61.5 3.8 8.1 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------