***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.10.2016.-30.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 11.7 82.6 59.2 45.8 2.7 5.1 8.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.3 11.6 85.1 60.4 47.2 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.5 11.1 79.9 57.1 43.7 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.1 7.5 10.4 71.7 53.9 40.0 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 7.5 11.3 84.0 58.3 44.3 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.5 10.8 82.6 56.6 44.0 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 11.4 85.8 60.2 46.6 2.5 4.3 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.7 9.5 11.7 87.4 59.1 46.0 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 7.1 11.8 85.1 58.3 44.7 3.3 5.6 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 12.1 86.9 58.6 46.0 3.6 6.5 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.0 10.5 82.6 57.6 44.5 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.4 10.5 84.6 58.3 44.8 2.7 4.9 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.8 11.1 86.6 58.7 45.9 2.9 5.8 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.1 13.7 86.5 58.7 46.0 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.3 9.5 62.3 51.0 36.3 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.1 5.2 9.6 76.5 54.5 41.7 2.0 4.4 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.9 11.8 90.5 62.5 48.5 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.8 7.8 12.7 84.9 56.8 46.1 3.4 6.3 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.8 7.2 11.2 83.3 59.5 46.1 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.0 14.7 88.8 58.8 47.3 3.2 6.5 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.2 10.8 79.7 56.5 42.6 2.4 5.0 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.7 12.1 91.3 62.8 49.1 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.7 11.2 84.1 59.1 44.8 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.5 12.4 84.8 57.8 45.9 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.3 11.4 78.4 56.5 43.2 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.9 11.2 87.7 60.2 45.6 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.2 11.6 80.1 57.9 45.2 2.1 4.1 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.7 9.6 69.0 52.7 39.6 2.9 5.3 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.4 13.4 85.2 57.2 46.7 5.1 9.1 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.5 11.4 82.6 58.9 45.6 2.2 4.2 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------