***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 40.3 44.3 57.1 105.0 61.2 55.6 22.6 34.6 49.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 35.5 44.8 54.5 113.2 65.9 60.4 17.8 29.7 44.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 43.3 46.9 56.0 105.2 61.0 55.3 24.4 37.0 52.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 49.5 52.8 64.8 106.6 61.9 54.7 28.7 41.9 57.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 42.7 44.2 58.5 102.2 59.0 53.0 26.6 37.3 50.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 36.8 43.3 63.9 112.2 65.5 58.6 20.0 30.7 44.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 31.5 39.3 54.6 113.0 65.7 60.4 17.2 27.1 39.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 62.4 60.5 60.8 100.6 56.9 51.4 36.7 53.0 72.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 40.6 40.8 58.1 101.1 58.1 52.9 23.7 34.7 47.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 50.4 47.4 59.8 98.2 55.2 50.2 30.6 43.2 57.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 41.2 43.1 60.1 104.7 60.4 53.8 24.5 35.2 47.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 39.4 42.0 58.3 105.2 60.7 54.3 20.9 32.7 47.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 42.0 46.3 61.6 106.7 61.8 56.0 23.5 35.8 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 67.4 69.2 62.8 103.1 59.1 54.2 38.9 57.3 79.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 36.0 40.8 67.9 108.9 63.6 55.5 18.5 29.4 43.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 37.5 40.4 59.5 105.4 61.1 55.0 20.1 31.4 45.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 41.7 42.1 55.4 119.3 69.0 63.2 16.2 26.4 39.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 52.7 49.5 60.0 96.9 54.1 49.6 33.6 46.3 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 43.8 54.0 54.9 112.0 65.2 59.7 22.9 37.0 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 54.1 49.6 68.2 95.6 52.7 49.1 33.4 47.3 63.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 43.6 44.6 57.0 102.0 59.0 53.7 26.2 37.7 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 50.8 50.5 56.0 117.7 68.3 62.5 21.1 32.9 47.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 47.0 54.6 56.4 109.4 63.6 58.0 25.6 40.0 57.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 57.7 57.1 58.6 101.0 57.5 52.1 33.3 48.8 67.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 41.1 42.5 60.6 101.2 58.9 53.8 22.1 34.7 50.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 40.8 47.9 63.0 112.5 65.5 58.3 24.1 35.2 48.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 37.5 40.3 58.4 103.3 60.3 55.1 22.1 32.6 45.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 34.3 37.8 63.4 107.8 62.7 55.3 18.5 28.5 40.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 70.4 65.6 61.7 95.0 52.4 48.8 46.3 62.9 81.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 36.6 43.6 54.8 109.9 64.0 58.4 19.1 30.9 46.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------