***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.0 8.2 -1.1 29.9 33.0 5.3 6.7 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.0 5.0 7.8 -1.0 30.3 34.3 5.2 6.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.1 7.0 7.9 -1.3 25.1 29.4 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 1.9 1.4 4.9 -1.8 16.6 21.4 2.9 4.1 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.1 4.4 6.1 -1.0 30.4 33.9 4.6 5.9 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.5 5.4 0.1 53.1 52.4 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.4 7.9 -0.9 32.7 36.3 5.4 6.6 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.1 6.0 0.5 59.1 58.4 -0.1 1.4 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.3 6.0 7.1 -0.5 37.9 41.0 5.7 6.9 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.7 6.4 0.1 51.3 52.2 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.5 6.3 -0.5 39.8 42.1 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.5 6.5 0.2 54.3 54.0 4.0 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 6.9 6.9 6.8 0.8 67.3 63.8 4.4 5.6 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.4 7.2 -0.4 39.9 44.1 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 5.3 5.1 7.1 -1.3 21.2 26.8 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.2 -0.3 44.6 45.3 6.0 7.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.1 5.3 7.3 -1.0 30.2 34.7 5.5 6.6 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.9 6.0 0.3 54.9 55.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.0 7.8 -1.1 27.7 32.3 5.4 6.7 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 3.7 3.8 5.3 1.3 73.0 70.5 0.7 2.0 3.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 4.5 4.4 7.6 -1.3 24.7 28.7 5.2 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 4.0 7.4 -1.3 24.1 29.5 4.7 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.9 4.8 7.8 -1.1 26.5 31.9 5.3 6.5 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.7 7.1 -0.4 41.5 44.7 5.2 6.2 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 4.9 4.9 7.1 -1.4 25.9 29.3 5.6 7.0 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.3 7.0 1.2 73.1 69.1 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 5.3 7.9 -0.8 34.7 37.2 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 3.4 3.2 5.7 -1.4 21.9 26.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.1 5.9 0.8 64.8 63.8 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.1 8.0 -1.1 29.4 33.2 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------