***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.2 9.2 0.4 56.0 53.3 4.8 5.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 6.1 8.6 0.3 54.0 52.0 4.6 5.8 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.5 8.4 9.0 0.6 58.4 55.0 6.7 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.8 6.9 0.8 62.2 57.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.1 7.1 1.0 63.9 59.3 4.1 5.2 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.0 6.0 1.7 72.5 67.1 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.4 6.0 8.5 0.2 53.0 51.1 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 2.2 2.4 6.2 1.6 71.8 66.4 -0.3 0.9 2.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.2 7.7 1.0 63.9 59.2 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.9 6.7 1.4 68.4 63.3 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.7 6.5 7.0 1.3 68.8 63.5 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 5.8 6.1 6.9 1.6 72.5 66.7 3.5 4.6 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.5 6.6 1.6 72.1 66.5 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 7.0 7.5 0.9 62.7 58.4 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.1 7.4 0.9 64.0 59.3 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.5 6.7 1.4 69.8 64.4 5.2 6.2 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.9 8.1 0.1 52.1 50.8 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.8 6.3 1.4 68.3 63.4 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.2 8.7 0.4 56.2 53.5 4.8 5.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.1 4.9 1.5 69.0 64.5 0.7 1.8 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.4 8.6 0.7 60.3 56.4 4.6 5.7 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.4 8.1 0.2 52.7 51.3 4.1 5.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 8.6 0.6 59.5 55.8 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.2 7.6 1.1 65.1 60.4 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 7.9 0.6 59.1 55.4 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.6 6.8 6.8 1.7 73.1 67.9 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.9 8.5 0.5 57.4 54.2 5.2 6.4 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.2 7.0 0.9 64.1 59.5 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.1 5.9 1.5 68.4 63.6 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.6 6.4 8.9 0.3 54.8 52.5 4.8 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------