***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 1.9 3.9 7.2 -0.2 46.5 48.3 2.6 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.9 6.9 -0.2 47.4 48.9 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.4 6.2 6.9 -0.2 46.2 48.3 4.9 6.5 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -0.4 1.0 4.4 -0.5 42.3 45.9 0.1 1.8 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 1.6 2.8 4.5 -0.4 43.8 46.9 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 3.4 2.5 3.2 -0.3 45.6 48.5 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.8 6.9 -0.2 47.3 48.7 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.2 -0.8 3.4 -0.3 46.0 49.4 -1.9 -0.4 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.8 5.2 -0.4 44.8 47.5 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.7 4.0 -0.3 45.7 48.5 2.7 4.1 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.2 4.3 -0.4 44.0 47.2 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.2 2.5 4.1 -0.4 44.1 47.8 1.5 3.0 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.5 2.7 3.7 -0.5 43.2 46.8 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.5 5.3 -0.3 46.0 48.1 3.4 4.9 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.4 4.9 -0.5 40.9 44.9 2.8 4.2 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 4.0 3.9 -0.4 43.4 46.7 3.1 4.5 5.8 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.0 6.5 -0.1 47.8 48.9 2.6 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.2 2.5 3.7 -0.2 46.6 49.0 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.1 4.0 6.8 -0.2 46.9 48.7 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -0.2 2.2 -0.2 47.1 50.3 -1.3 0.0 1.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.6 6.3 -0.3 45.6 47.8 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 1.3 3.2 6.5 -0.2 47.1 48.5 1.9 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.4 3.9 6.6 -0.2 46.1 48.1 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 5.2 -0.2 46.2 48.5 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.0 5.7 -0.4 44.3 47.1 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.0 3.9 -0.6 41.8 46.1 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 1.8 4.0 6.4 -0.3 45.5 47.8 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.2 4.5 -0.5 41.7 45.6 1.5 2.8 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 0.7 2.4 3.2 -0.2 46.7 49.4 1.0 2.7 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.1 7.1 -0.2 47.0 48.7 2.7 4.4 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------