***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.3 5.1 7.7 -0.2 46.3 47.3 4.4 5.2 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.0 4.8 7.3 -0.2 46.1 47.3 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.3 7.0 7.4 -0.2 45.6 46.8 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 1.2 1.9 4.9 -0.3 42.1 44.2 1.5 2.3 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.5 4.4 5.4 0.0 49.4 49.6 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.1 4.1 0.4 59.4 57.0 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.0 4.8 7.3 -0.2 46.3 47.4 4.2 5.0 5.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.5 0.8 4.6 0.6 62.8 60.1 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.5 5.5 6.1 0.1 53.1 52.3 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.3 5.4 5.1 0.4 59.3 57.2 4.4 5.1 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.8 5.3 0.2 55.5 54.1 3.9 4.6 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.2 5.2 0.5 61.0 58.3 3.0 3.7 4.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.6 5.0 0.5 62.9 59.5 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 5.7 6.1 0.1 53.5 52.8 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.8 5.9 -0.2 45.6 46.7 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.7 4.9 0.2 55.9 54.3 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.9 6.8 -0.2 45.5 47.0 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.2 4.7 0.5 60.5 58.3 3.2 3.8 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.9 7.3 -0.2 46.2 47.3 4.4 5.1 5.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 1.6 1.5 3.4 0.8 65.0 62.4 0.0 0.8 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.8 7.0 -0.1 46.8 47.6 4.2 5.0 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.6 4.2 6.9 -0.2 44.1 45.8 3.8 4.4 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 4.9 7.1 -0.1 47.2 48.2 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.9 6.0 0.2 54.8 53.8 4.1 4.7 5.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.4 5.2 6.3 -0.2 44.6 46.1 4.6 5.4 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.0 5.1 0.6 64.6 61.0 3.8 4.5 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.3 7.1 -0.1 48.0 48.6 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.4 5.2 -0.2 45.3 46.5 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.0 4.3 0.6 63.2 60.6 2.5 3.3 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.4 5.1 7.5 -0.2 45.8 47.0 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------