***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 14.0 15.2 15.6 -0.6 42.7 43.9 14.3 15.8 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 13.9 15.0 15.3 -0.8 40.9 42.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.4 15.7 15.6 -0.7 42.3 43.8 14.8 16.4 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.8 13.6 -0.8 41.7 42.7 7.9 9.6 11.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 14.6 16.0 14.1 -0.6 43.2 44.4 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.6 16.4 13.9 0.1 50.8 50.4 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.0 15.1 15.3 -0.8 41.3 42.7 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.5 8.2 13.5 -0.1 49.1 49.3 6.8 8.2 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.9 16.3 14.7 -0.6 43.8 45.2 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 14.4 16.0 14.0 -0.3 46.8 47.6 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.4 14.2 -0.4 45.9 46.7 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.5 14.3 -0.1 48.6 49.0 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 15.3 17.2 14.2 -0.1 49.2 49.4 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 14.5 16.0 14.6 -0.5 44.4 45.7 14.9 16.6 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.6 14.7 13.7 -0.7 41.9 42.6 14.0 15.3 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.9 17.5 14.2 -0.3 46.7 47.2 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.6 14.5 14.8 -0.9 39.3 40.8 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 13.6 15.4 13.7 -0.2 48.3 48.8 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 13.8 15.1 15.5 -0.8 41.3 42.8 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 13.6 12.1 0.1 51.0 50.8 11.9 13.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.5 15.8 15.1 -0.7 42.4 43.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 14.0 15.0 14.9 -0.9 39.5 41.0 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.1 15.5 15.5 -0.7 42.5 43.9 14.6 16.1 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.7 16.3 14.8 -0.4 45.6 46.7 15.1 16.7 18.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.1 14.1 -0.6 42.9 43.8 14.2 15.7 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.9 14.2 0.0 50.4 50.2 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 14.4 15.7 14.9 -0.6 43.7 44.6 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.6 15.0 13.9 -0.7 42.3 43.2 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 12.4 13.1 0.0 49.6 49.9 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 13.9 15.1 15.5 -0.7 41.6 43.1 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------