***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 12.3 14.3 13.8 -0.5 43.8 45.6 13.1 15.0 16.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 12.4 14.1 13.7 -0.5 43.0 45.2 13.1 14.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 12.9 14.8 13.8 -0.5 43.5 45.6 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.9 7.7 11.4 -0.8 40.5 43.2 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 13.0 14.6 12.0 -0.6 42.3 44.9 13.6 15.5 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.9 11.1 -0.7 42.3 45.4 12.8 14.8 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 12.1 13.7 13.6 -0.5 43.0 45.4 12.7 14.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.4 6.9 11.4 -0.4 45.6 48.2 5.7 7.3 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 13.2 15.0 12.7 -0.5 43.7 45.9 13.8 15.6 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 13.0 14.8 12.0 -0.4 45.0 47.3 13.5 15.3 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.9 12.0 -0.6 43.1 45.8 13.7 15.6 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 12.7 14.4 11.9 -0.5 43.6 46.8 13.2 15.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.7 11.6 -0.7 41.9 45.6 13.7 15.6 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 13.3 15.4 13.1 -0.3 46.5 48.0 13.7 15.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.4 11.5 -0.9 39.2 42.1 12.8 14.4 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.0 15.4 11.7 -0.7 41.8 45.0 14.4 16.3 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 11.8 13.2 13.3 -0.6 42.4 45.1 12.3 13.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 12.2 14.0 11.8 -0.3 46.6 48.6 12.5 14.4 16.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 12.4 14.3 13.9 -0.5 43.6 45.6 13.1 14.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.0 10.1 -0.2 47.8 50.2 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 13.0 14.7 13.2 -0.6 43.1 45.3 13.7 15.4 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 12.3 14.1 13.5 -0.5 43.8 45.9 13.0 14.8 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 12.6 14.6 13.9 -0.4 45.0 46.6 13.3 15.1 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.4 15.4 13.0 -0.4 45.8 47.6 13.8 15.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.2 13.9 12.2 -0.5 43.4 45.3 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 13.1 14.3 11.6 -0.7 41.6 46.0 13.5 15.1 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 12.7 14.6 13.1 -0.4 44.6 46.2 13.4 15.2 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 12.2 13.6 11.6 -0.9 39.4 42.5 12.8 14.7 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 11.0 11.2 -0.2 47.5 49.6 9.2 11.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 12.3 14.0 13.8 -0.5 43.2 45.3 12.9 14.6 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------