***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.4 12.4 0.3 54.0 54.4 11.1 13.0 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 13.2 13.1 12.4 0.3 54.0 54.9 11.0 12.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.0 14.0 12.6 0.4 54.9 55.3 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.3 10.4 0.3 54.0 54.1 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.7 11.0 0.5 55.6 55.6 11.3 13.1 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.3 10.1 0.3 54.0 54.3 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 13.1 12.9 12.3 0.3 53.8 54.7 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.4 10.3 0.6 57.1 57.3 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 14.2 14.4 11.7 0.5 56.3 56.4 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.8 14.0 10.9 0.6 57.3 57.3 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 14.1 14.3 11.0 0.6 56.9 56.7 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.0 10.9 0.5 56.5 56.8 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.0 10.6 0.4 54.4 55.1 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.6 12.0 0.7 57.9 58.0 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 12.8 12.6 10.5 0.2 53.0 53.4 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 14.7 14.6 10.8 0.5 55.5 55.5 12.0 14.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 12.7 12.5 12.0 0.2 52.8 54.1 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 13.0 13.2 10.8 0.7 57.7 57.9 10.7 12.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 13.4 13.4 12.6 0.4 54.7 55.5 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.2 8.9 0.5 55.8 56.6 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.9 12.1 0.4 55.0 55.2 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.2 12.1 0.3 53.7 54.8 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.7 12.7 0.5 56.2 56.7 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.7 11.9 0.7 57.6 57.7 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.8 11.0 0.3 53.8 54.2 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.6 10.3 0.1 51.6 53.5 11.6 13.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.5 11.8 0.3 54.0 54.4 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.9 12.7 10.6 0.3 54.0 54.1 11.0 12.4 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.6 10.1 0.7 57.6 58.0 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 13.2 13.1 12.5 0.3 54.2 54.9 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------