***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.9 13.7 13.5 -1.4 24.6 29.6 14.4 15.5 16.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 14.0 13.8 13.5 -1.5 24.3 29.1 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 14.4 14.3 13.6 -1.4 25.5 30.6 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.1 11.0 -1.8 19.4 25.1 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 14.5 14.3 12.0 -1.4 25.6 30.8 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.6 11.7 -0.7 37.2 40.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.5 -1.4 25.3 30.0 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.0 11.8 -0.6 39.1 42.5 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.7 12.8 -1.3 28.3 33.4 15.1 16.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.8 12.2 -0.9 35.0 39.1 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.7 14.8 12.2 -1.1 30.6 35.2 14.9 16.1 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.9 12.4 -0.7 36.8 40.4 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 14.8 15.5 12.5 -0.6 38.8 41.7 15.1 16.2 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.2 13.2 -0.9 33.9 38.2 15.1 16.2 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 13.6 13.2 11.6 -1.8 18.2 23.9 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.5 12.2 -1.1 31.4 35.7 15.6 16.7 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.1 -1.5 23.3 28.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.4 14.3 12.2 -0.6 39.8 43.3 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 14.1 13.9 13.6 -1.4 25.2 30.1 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 10.7 -0.2 46.3 48.6 11.7 12.7 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 14.4 14.3 13.2 -1.4 25.1 30.3 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 14.0 13.9 13.2 -1.5 24.2 29.2 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.3 13.8 -1.3 28.1 33.0 14.6 15.7 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 14.9 15.2 13.2 -0.9 34.2 38.6 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 13.8 13.5 12.1 -1.5 23.1 28.4 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.2 12.2 -0.6 39.0 41.9 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.2 13.0 -1.3 26.0 30.9 14.6 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 13.8 13.4 11.5 -1.7 20.4 26.0 14.3 15.2 16.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.5 11.7 -0.3 44.4 47.1 10.7 11.8 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 13.9 13.7 13.6 -1.4 24.8 29.6 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------