***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9.2 13.6 21.8 189.4 83.4 75.1 2.0 4.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 10.7 19.1 22.6 235.9 89.1 80.9 2.4 4.8 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 13.2 21.2 23.6 206.2 85.9 76.5 2.1 4.8 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 19.7 29.5 28.4 204.4 85.3 79.1 3.1 7.2 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 16.4 25.1 30.0 208.2 85.7 79.1 2.9 6.3 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.9 16.0 17.2 118.7 70.3 62.3 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 10.1 17.2 22.2 222.0 87.5 80.0 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 20.4 25.3 24.5 149.0 77.2 68.8 5.3 10.4 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 14.7 21.3 25.5 180.7 82.6 73.2 3.1 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 18.1 23.9 26.8 168.5 80.7 72.7 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 15.3 21.0 24.4 177.3 81.7 73.1 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 13.5 16.6 20.1 142.5 75.8 66.2 3.1 6.7 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.5 19.8 21.3 150.6 77.5 70.5 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 21.9 32.4 26.5 190.9 84.2 76.2 4.1 8.9 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 14.8 22.4 28.3 202.5 85.2 77.7 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.4 17.3 21.5 157.6 78.8 70.7 3.0 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 10.1 17.6 22.1 245.3 89.9 82.6 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 18.4 24.3 27.7 165.8 80.1 72.3 4.7 9.2 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 13.2 25.2 22.9 233.1 88.9 79.5 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 16.9 22.0 33.3 157.4 78.8 71.5 4.4 8.5 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 12.9 18.9 25.3 197.0 84.5 75.2 3.1 5.9 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 10.4 18.9 22.4 243.1 89.9 82.0 2.2 4.5 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 14.2 26.5 24.4 225.2 88.4 78.7 2.1 5.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 17.2 25.3 26.4 186.0 83.4 75.2 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 12.7 18.9 26.0 189.7 83.5 76.9 2.4 5.5 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 13.5 15.2 19.5 124.8 72.0 65.3 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 10.8 15.2 23.0 183.3 82.6 75.3 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 13.6 18.7 25.8 188.1 83.1 75.8 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 23.0 29.9 27.7 159.1 79.0 71.3 5.9 11.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 10.9 19.7 23.4 230.4 88.6 80.4 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------