***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.0 17.2 13.8 117.4 69.4 53.1 3.7 8.2 15.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.1 14.2 15.6 117.1 69.2 53.1 3.1 6.9 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.0 17.8 15.2 121.9 70.6 55.7 3.9 8.4 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 11.5 11.6 88.1 59.6 39.0 3.7 8.1 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.4 16.5 16.5 130.2 73.0 56.9 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.8 18.3 130.0 73.0 57.3 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.6 12.4 16.0 122.0 70.7 53.5 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 19.0 23.5 18.9 147.5 76.9 61.6 5.0 9.8 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 14.6 15.6 122.1 70.8 53.3 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.2 19.5 17.8 135.6 74.2 59.0 5.0 9.3 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.4 15.3 14.8 131.6 73.4 56.5 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.6 14.5 15.7 144.3 76.2 58.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 13.7 15.8 17.2 139.6 75.3 60.3 3.2 6.6 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.0 23.5 18.1 114.5 68.2 56.3 6.2 12.3 21.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.3 16.5 20.3 135.4 74.4 56.5 2.5 6.1 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 13.8 15.4 129.2 72.8 57.6 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.2 11.1 15.4 113.8 68.4 52.5 2.6 5.5 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 15.1 16.5 19.9 131.8 73.2 59.7 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 18.1 14.9 113.1 67.8 52.2 4.1 9.1 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.3 21.6 27.1 138.0 74.8 60.9 4.7 9.4 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.4 17.4 14.0 118.7 69.8 52.0 4.0 8.5 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 13.1 14.8 102.3 64.6 49.5 3.1 7.3 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.2 17.9 14.8 111.9 67.4 53.4 4.1 9.1 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.9 21.5 17.8 123.6 70.9 57.7 4.2 9.7 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.5 19.1 16.8 129.5 72.7 58.5 3.2 7.7 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.6 16.9 16.3 137.4 74.8 58.7 3.6 7.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.5 16.2 125.6 71.7 57.0 3.7 7.8 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 11.2 15.5 110.4 66.8 48.8 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 20.4 22.7 22.4 133.8 73.7 60.3 5.3 10.5 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.2 16.6 15.8 121.5 70.4 54.6 3.5 7.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------